Ten Bold Predictions for 2011
(In two cases a blank conceals my prediction. Go ahead, call me a wuss. But it's possible I'll have to share a microphone with these people at some point this year. Right or wrong, I'll reveal all 10, and assess my Miss Cleo-like abilities as the calendar flips to 2012. Like a great baseball hitter, I'm hoping to go 3 for 10)
9. Shania Twain will release new music: But it won’t be very good. We’ll act like it’s good and she’ll sell a gazillion albums, but after a month the CD will end up buried under old issues of People Magazine and McDonald’s wrappers. Need proof? Name one song from her last album you still hear on radio?8. Ronnie Dunn will have a #1 hit: Brooks and Dunn were wise to step away when they did, and solo albums from both Kix and Ronnie should be fantastic. I don’t think Kix will have the radio success that Ronnie will have however. His will be amongst the projects that win awards but struggle on radio. Dunn’s soul drenched, country rock and roll style is as good as anything on the radio right now. Better yet, no one else is doing what he’s capable of doing. There’s a big ol’ niche begging Ronnie to fill it.
7. _______ will break up: This is a dang shame because they make great music together. However where chemistry once made them an intriguing act, a few years of struggling for hits has left a drop of poison in the well. Last time I saw them, they looked tired and a little splintered.
6. This year's Easton Corbin will be: Walker Hayes. Easton had back to back #1 hits and sold a bunch of albums. That's more success than anyone could have dreamed of. Walker has a fun debut in "Pants," and some really meaningful songs to back it up. It doesn't hurt that he's easy to look at and has a crop of kids waiting for him at home. I expect he'll be nominated for one or two new artist awards before 2011 ends.
5. It will be a quiet year for Montgomery Gentry: The last six months were humbling for this one time powerhouse duo. Taking a few months to recover emotionally would be a prudent decision before the boys try to release new music. I'm not sure another major label would sign them right now. I suspect they'll find the path brother John Michael blazed with a smaller independent label that allows him artistic freedom while minimizing the number of hits they score over the next five years.
4. ____ will lose his record deal. This could happen a few different ways, but he's particularly vulnerable because his last album flopped. Often an artist in his situation will get one more shot, before quietly being moved off the roster in place of a younger, more attractive newbie.
3. The CMA Male and Female Vocalist of the year will be: Keith Urban and Taylor Swift. Keith is on a roll. He's opening up to Oprah, his wife is chatting and making movies, and he has an adorable daughter. His music is as good as ever, and now everyone is cheering for him. Taylor Swift isn't slowing down either. Her latest album will be eligible for CMA awards this year, and she'll sell out a hundred shows in 100 seconds. Sometimes Nashville politics push the trophies to undeserving artists, but I don't think that'll happen this year. One of these two will win Entertainer of the Year as well.
2. There will be more crossover artists: But none will score a Top 20 hit. Aaron Lewis from Stained and one of the guys from Better than Ezra are the latest to make the jump, but I can't take either seriously yet. As an audience, country listeners are initially suspicious of artists trying to cash in on country music. We haven't forgotten about Jessica Simpson.
1. We'll lose someone too soon. This is sort of a morbid prediction, but these sort of things happen from time to time. I hope I'm wrong on this one, unless it means Snooki falling down a Chilean mine shaft.
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